By: Rachel Fields, Art Direction Intern
As thousands of athletes who consistently exceed expectations begin to gather for the Olympics, it felt important to look at the psychology behind expectations. When expectations are set, there are three things that can happen: you can achieve the expectation, you can exceed the expectation, or you can fall short of the expectation. Just as not meeting expectations can lead to disappointment, comparisons to others’ success can bring disappointment as well. Many athletes aim to be the best, and when reaching such a monumental stage, they often dream of winning a gold medal to make their team and country proud. But shouldn’t a silver medal make them just as happy if they don’t win gold? According to a 2021 study by professors at the University of Iowa, many silver medalists are surprisingly more unhappy than bronze medalists. But why is this? Simple – comparisons and high expectations.
Professors at the University of Iowa took 413 photos of athletes from 67 countries during medaling from 2000 to 2016 and used AI to analyze the photos. The AI analyzed the athletes’ mouths, eyes, eyebrows, etc. to determine their disappointment levels. They also added in predictions from Sports Illustrated Olympic finish predictions to gauge if facial expressions were affected more if the athlete underperformed. What they found was shocking. Though the silver medalist had performed better than the bronze medalist, on average, the bronze medalist was happier than the silver medalist. This may not make sense when you think about it because the silver medalist outperformed the bronze medalist, but when you look at the psychology behind this, you will understand why this is.
Counterfactual Thinking and Expectation-based Counterfactuals
Counterfactual thinking is when you envision what could have happened but did not. Comparisons begin to form in these medalist minds, but they are vastly different comparisons for each placement. For silver medalists, they start to think, “But I could have won gold.” For a bronze medalist they think, “I am glad I placed at all.” For someone who won a silver, they feel that they were so close to winning a gold, and disappointment quickly pushes its way in due to their shattered aspirations.
On the other hand for a bronze winner, a feeling of relief quickly forms as they feel they are lucky that they did not perform worse and therefore, they feel proud of their performance. These emotions can stem from self-comparisons. For silver medalists, they often form upward comparisons meaning they compare themselves to the gold medalist or previous records of their own that were better than their win. However, bronze medalists will often engage in downward comparisons and compare themselves to the others who did not place. This brings them more joy than disappointment when evaluating their place, while silver medalists begin with disappointment at what could have been.
This discrepancy can also be caused by expectation-based counterfactuals. For silver medalists, they may have expectations set that they will win a gold medal if they are already an athlete with a gold medal or predictions have them winning the gold, but many bronze medalists do not have this expectation. Because of silver medalists’ preconceived ideas, they will often feel disappointment for not achieving their set expectations or the expectations they believe others have for them. While it is hard to stop others from having expectations, everyone must set their own expectations when working towards a goal. Sometimes reframing expectations to be more reasonable is the only way to avoid disappointment if these expectations set by others are not met.
The Big Picture
While it may be difficult to avoid having expectations or comparing yourself when striving towards a goal, you can shift your expectations. Many think these feelings only happen for people with jobs like professional athletes and competitors, but these feelings also exist in everyday life for everyone. Anytime someone places second, there can be an upward comparison. While expectations and comparisons do matter when evaluating how one has done, these comparisons need to be reframed from an upward comparison to a downward comparison. Instead of thinking that you did not hit the goal you achieved for that time period, you can instead think that you have done a good job given the circumstances or it is better than not having started at all.
It is also important to set expectations that can be met or succeeded when starting projects instead of having unrealistic goals that become overwhelming. Rather, you should set one large goal along with smaller goals that are more attainable, allowing you to achieve the goals you’ve set and not succumb to the disappointment of having set over-ambitious goals. If you change your expectations, you can often be more satisfied with what you accomplish. The study suggests that reframing your perceptions of success will support a more satisfied feeling. While balancing your own counterfactual thinking is important, it is also important to consider how it affects your customers. Counterfactual thinking is a tool that can be used by your company and can be leveraged when creating strategies.
Tips for Marketers
The principle of counterfactual thinking is a potent tool in the marketer’s toolbox. By invoking the consumer’s sense of “what could have been,” marketers can recreate those same feelings that silver and bronze athletes experience while on top of the Olympic podium.
Promotional Strategies:
- Highlighting Missed Opportunities: By showing what consumers might miss out on if they don’t purchase a product, companies can frame their product or service as an upward comparison. For example, “Don’t miss out on this exclusive offer!” or “Imagine if you had this product during your last trip.” This approach makes consumers compare their current, “negative” situation with a more desirable alternative. Similar to a silver medalist finding themselves just shy of receiving the gold, consumers will start to see themselves as someone who could have won it all. This can create a powerful motivation to act, driven by the desire to avoid the regret of a missed opportunity and to attain the perceived benefits that come with the product.
- Highlighting the Positive Outcome: Conversely, a brand showing how consumers avoided a negative scenario by choosing their product will trigger a downward comparison among consumers. Here are a few examples of how that downward comparison can be made:
- Imagine if you hadn’t had our insurance when your car broke down
- It could have been worse without this item
- This approach allows consumers to compare their current, “positive” situation with a less desirable alternative. Similar to the feelings of a bronze medalist, this downward comparison highlights the happiness and peace of mind that comes from emerging out of the ranks of obscurity (or woe) and basking in the glow of success when the comparatively negative alternative was so close to occurring. A good example of this is Allstate’s “Mayhem” Campaign. The campaign shows various disastrous scenarios that could have been avoided with Allstate insurance, leveraging counterfactual thinking to suggest that being without Allstate might lead to regret.
- Making Direct Comparisons: Brands can leverage upward counterfactual thinking by presenting their product as the better choice. For instance, a commercial might show two individuals—one who chose their brand and one who didn’t—highlighting the better outcome for the one who did.
- Using Real-life Examples: Featuring stories where customers discuss what might have happened if they hadn’t chosen that particular product can be powerful. This method often invokes a downward counterfactual comparison that reinforces the decision to purchase.
- Before-and-After Scenarios: Last but not least, using before-and-after images or scenarios can create vivid counterfactual comparisons, making the positive change attributable to the product more striking. A great example of this is Nutrisystem’s Before-and-After Stories. By showing drastic weight loss transformations, these ads place viewers firmly in a counterfactual mindset, spurring them to think about what their lives could be like if they achieved similar results.
Leveraging counterfactual comparisons in marketing can powerfully influence consumer behavior by playing on the twin emotions of aspiration and relief. Whether highlighting missed opportunities (upward comparisons) or showcasing positive outcomes (downward comparisons), these strategies tap into the human desire to avoid regret and make the best choices, ultimately driving engagement and loyalty. In the end, effective marketing isn’t just about selling a product—it’s about framing a narrative where the consumer always comes out on top.